Which EPL Manager Will Lose His Job Next?

Who will follow next in the footsteps of Kevin Keegan, Juande Ramos and Roy Keane this season? Off hand, I can think of a few candidates, namely Scolari, Mark Hughes and Paul Ince whose services could soon be dispensable.

Scolari’s position in Chelsea is increasingly shaky. His attacking style resulted in a vulnerable Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and the Brazilian has to juggle a language barrier, smaller transfer kitty, clash of ideals with Roman Abramovich and player politics to survive.

Chelsea fans have also whetted their appetite for trophies since Jose Mourinho’s reign and will not take kindly to empty-handed seasons. The “unqualified” Avram Grant managed to keep the ship on a steady keel last season so if Scolari falls short of that benchmark, his past glories will mean little in saving his job.

As for Mark Hughes, he is struggling with consistency. Manchester City lost 1-0 to Everton, marking the fifth home league defeat of this season. Despite the signing of £32.5m Brazilian superstar Robinho, Manchester City are looking nothing like championship material. At least Sven put up a fine pretense until Christmas when their title run fell apart.

Though Hughes’s Middle Eastern boss is not in a hurry to sack him, that patience may evaporate when he fail to match their expectations after more money is made available to recruit quality players in January.

But we may at least see the duo until the end of the season. Blackburn’s manager Paul Ince is in a far bigger crisis – his team has gone without a victory since September and he seems helpless in changing the team’s relegation fate. Though Ince survived a board meeting last week, his job is still hanging by a thread, especially after losing the first of “five cup finals.”

On Saturday, Wigan effortlessly blew Blackburn apart in a 3-0 victory, with goals coming from Emile Heskey, Antonio Valencia and Lee Cattermole. Paul Ince took full responsibility for their sixth successive defeat and vowed to carry on as manager.

Blackburn fans are not cheering that decision though. Once Wigan started banging in the goals, choruses of “You’re getting sacked in the morning” and “You don’t know what you’re doing” filled the stadium, a clear indication of Ince’s current standing among the fans.

By the 12th minute, any semblance of Blackburn’s resistance was destroyed. Valencia eased past Warnock and delivered a brilliant cross which was met by Heskey for his third goal of the season. Two minutes earlier, Valencia had nutmegged Warnock by slipping the ball between his legs and the live-wire was simply too hot to handle.

Blackburn had barely regained their composure when their defense was breached again in the 14th minute. Paul Robinson took a goal-kick but Mario Melchiot was first to the ball and played it to Valencia, who slotted home stylishly after a free run on goal. Once again, Warnock and Pedersen were negligent in their basic defensive duties.

Just before the break, the match could be sewn up had Cattermole scored from Valencia’s assist but his header hit the underside of the bar. It was finally over in the 77th minute when Valencia’s cross was deflected by Warnock and Cattermole was alert enough to drive the ball into the net.

I must say Rovers defense was extremely sloppy and unrecognizable from the team of spirited fighters crafted by Mark Hughes. It has caused much of their demise today. Not that the midfield performed any better as Blackburn surrendered possession easily and frequently, with Tugay the serial offender.

In the aftermath of this defeat, Paul Ince cut a lonely figure in the Blackburn camp. Fortunately, Wigan’s manager Steve Bruce, stood behind his former team mate in his darkest hour. He urged patience, saying: “I’ve known him for a long, long time and you don’t play for Milan and Liverpool unless you’ve got a bit of bottle. I don’t want to comment on him losing his job and I’m sure he will turn it around.”

Bruce is being kind but Blackburn fans are running out of patience and they will prefer the axe to fall on Paul Ince tomorrow. The question is no longer if but when for these diehard supporters. If Ince flunk the next four games, the inevitable may just happen.

I know it is heartbreaking for the fans to see the deterioration of their club. Blackburn finished 7th last year and have been in the top half of the league for the last 3 seasons. They earned a reputation of being defensively tight and had a manager that was tactically astute and motivated the players well. Now, with gov’nor Paul Ince around, the oomph factor is gone.

However, the fans have to discard the “we want it now” mentality. Developing a mid-table club into perennial title contender requires patience, planning, vision, and if possible, truckloads of cash. Patience is in especially short supply these days but if Hodgson (Fulham), Moyes(Everton) and Megson(Bolton) are still in their jobs after experiencing nasty setbacks, then sacking Paul Ince may be too hasty.

Ince has appealed for more time to grow accustomed to the pressure of managing a Premier League club and I believe it is justified. There is no point in handing Ince another 4-5 games without giving him the whole season. Many managers had escaped the drop right till the last day of the season so why should Ince be deprived of the chance?

Beginners must be given a fair chance at success and in order to have more English managers gaining international recognition, the least we can do is to give them time and space to develop in the Premier League. There will be no Sir Alex Ferguson today if results were expected of him in the first attempt.

To alleviate the stress, Ince had shifted some responsibility back to the Blackburn board when he called upon them to spend. He said: “The cold hard fact is we need investment. You saw Wigan today “lots of pace, power and we need new faces coming in.”

Paul Ince may have a point there. To be a major title contender, you can’t be signing players like Keith Andrews – a 29 year old 3rd division player, or bringing in Robbie Fowler and Matt Jansen for trials.

If these guys are good enough to make the first XI, then other players may not be motivated to perform. Existing players like Tugay has lost the plot and Santa Cruz’s heart is no longer with the club. Coupled with the departure of David Bentley, one of Blackburn’s most promising stars, Ince’s trump cards are limited when the going gets tough.

I wouldn’t blame the board for not getting solid reinforcements though. The club is not exactly flush with cash and the January transfer budget, if any, is expected to be modest. Ince has no choice but to make do with the lack of depth in the squad.

In any case, getting additional quality players is not a process which is achievable overnight. If the board adopts a financially reckless approach, in the worst case scenario that Blackburn are demoted which means considerably less revenue, they may do a Leeds’ United and have to liquidate their best assets.

I believe Paul Ince may be facing lesser criticisms if he has some notable achievements under his belt. Unlike Scolari and Hughes, Paul Ince can only claim to have saved Macclesfield from relegation and took MK Dons to the title and a cup but both clubs are in the lower divisions.

On hindsight, it may be better for Ince to spend a few more years managing these clubs and leading them to titles to build up his reputation and experience before moving up the ladder.

Blackburn were lucky when they took a gamble to appoint Mark Hughes. He did not have much experience (Blackburn was his first club appointment) but things worked out perfectly. Sparky learnt quickly on the job and was able to impose his own presence in the dressing room.

But if Blackburn were hoping for a second time lucky, they were greatly disappointed. Paul Ince’s learning curve turns out to be more eventful and in terms of tactical acumen, organization and encouraging his team, he has lots to catch up.

Nevertheless, not all aspects are negative about Paul Ince’s reign. When we consider Blackburn’s efforts against Liverpool or even against Spurs, Rovers were unorganized but worked hard to frustrate their opponents. After resilient performances characteristic of Ince, Rovers finally succumbed to the meekest of goals.

Blackburn’s next matches are against Stoke, Sunderland and Manchester City – all matches in which they have an even chance of winning. If they picked up full points, jumping out of the relegation zone is not impossible. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that Ince can do just that and prove his critics wrong.